Daily to Derby

Your morning briefing on the road to the Kentucky Derby

Edition No. 16 · Saturday, April 25, 2026

7 Days to Derby

📊 ITM Original

I Was Wrong About the Points System

For the better part of a decade, I've argued that the Kentucky Derby points system made the race more formful. The logic felt airtight: the old system let sprinters set suicidal paces, and the chaos produced longshot winners. Remove the sprinters, get honest paces, best horse wins more often.

It's a clean narrative. And it's wrong — or at least, there's nothing in the data to properly support it.

DRF's David Aragona and Dave Grening showed this week that Derby paces in the points era have not been any slower. Our friend Chris Larmey has made the same point. So I dug deeper: has the Derby become more formful? Surface-level, yes — favorites win 50% of the time since 2013 vs. 33% before. Longshot winners cut nearly in half.

I went looking for the explanation. First theory: the points system filtered out sprinters who set unsustainable fractions. I pulled data on every pace leader from the pre-points era — Songandaprayer, Spanish Chestnut, Keyed Entry, Recapturetheglory, Join in the Dance. Every single one was a legitimate route horse. Not sprinters. Two-turn horses who went too fast on the day.

Then I ran a statistical significance test. The difference between 4 favorite winners in 12 races and 6 in 12 races? Not statistically significant. There's an 18% chance of seeing that result through pure randomness. The entire "formfulness" finding comes down to two extra races in a 12-race sample.

Sometimes the most interesting finding is that there's no finding at all. Post positions are drawn today. The real handicapping starts now.

👉 Aragona & Grening's pace analysis on DRF YouTube
👉 Chris Larmey on pace dynamics on ITM

🔄 Field Watch

Chip Honcho Out, Litmus Test In

Asmussen withdrew Chip Honcho. Baffert's Litmus Test moves into the field — worked sharply from the gate in blinkers Thursday, five furlongs in :59.36.

This matters for the pace. Chip Honcho was one of only two confirmed early speed horses alongside Six Speed. The Derby just got even more pace-thin.

TODAY — Saturday, April 25

~2:15 PM ET

Kentucky Derby & Oaks Post Position Draw

Churchill Downs · FanDuel TV · WAVE-3 · KentuckyDerby.com (free stream)

Twenty horses, twenty gates. Full draw, morning line, and instant analysis across all ITM platforms.

👉 Watch our Churchill Opening Day preview

🇯🇵 Recap

Danon Bourbon Ran a 97

Alex Henry's proprietary Netkeiba conversion: 97 on the Beyer-equivalent scale in the Fukuryu Stakes. Fastest running of that race in 20 years, on a muddy track. T O Password ran an 83 from the same race and finished fifth in the 2024 Derby. He might get beat. But it won't be the distance that beats him.

👉 Danon Bourbon Monster Pod with Alex Henry
👉 Wonder Dean + Six Speed with Michael Adolphson

Go Plus →

📣 Industry

The Trainers Want to Move the Preakness

"I'm all for moving it. The health and the welfare of the horse comes first over tradition." — Brad Cox

"I would predict it is gonna change, certainly before my career is over." — Chad Brown

"Tradition is tradition, but we live in a different world." — Mark Glatt

CDI now owns two of the three Triple Crown legs. The schedule might actually be moveable. 👉 Full story at TDN

🎧 Partner Content

PTF on the Equibase Inside Track

Horse-by-horse GPS data analysis of the Derby field with Ben Kudla. 👉 Watch on Equibase YouTube

🎙️ New Monster Pods

👉 Intrepido with Frank Scatoni — Mullins' quotes suggest this is more owner-driven than trainer-driven. But a G1-winning two-year-old with tactical speed.

👉 Chip Honcho with Kevin Kilroy — Recorded before the scratch, but Kilroy's breakdown of Asmussen's Derby history is still a great listen.

📄 Free Content